At the end of 2024, will Trump Media & Technology (DJT) stock will have outperformed the S&P 500 index?
Note: DJT IPO’d in March, so the YTD will be March - December, in comparison to the S&P’s January - December.
You can also bet again the meme version of this:
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,968 | |
| 2 | Ṁ169 | |
| 3 | Ṁ86 | |
| 4 | Ṁ60 | |
| 5 | Ṁ35 |
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Never mind my previous YES. I just read the disclaimer: "DJT IPO’d in March, so the YTD will be from March to December, compared to the S&P’s January to December." This means the market would resolve as NO, but it seems that even Matt doesn’t acknowledge this in his earlier comment. (See: link)
However you choose to resolve it (January or March (26th?)), the Google data provide clarity, as both outcomes are pretty clear: (Jan-Dec is obviously YES, Mar-Dec is obviously NO).
The exact data is available here:
I’m not giving any recommendations on how to resolve this, just sharing the data for reference.
Putting a small bet on yes, because while this business is a total failure on economic fundamentals, I expect it to be carried by Trump sycophants and/or wealthy foreign investors looking for favors if Trump gets elected again. At least until such time as Trump dumps the stock, which could happen before EOY. I definitely don’t have enough confidence to put actual money on this.

