Context: Biden is canceling $7.4 billion in student debt for 277,000 borrowers. Here's who is eligible.
There are three distinct pieces that have to come to fruition for this to Resolve YES:
$3.6 billion for 206,800 borrowers enrolled in the SAVE plan
$3.5 billion for 65,700 borrowers in income-repayment plans
$300 million for 4,600 borrowers through Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF)
If Republicans/ courts successfully nullify 1-2 of these three plans, this will Resolve to a percent, likely by dollars forgiven.
Relevant, from the article:
In two separate lawsuits, Republican attorneys general in 18 states are pushing to have the SAVE plan tossed and to halt any further student debt cancellation. They say the SAVE plan oversteps Biden's authority and makes it harder for states to recruit employees. They also contend the plan undermines a separate cancellation program that encourages careers in public service.
1,000🏅 Top traders
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I looked at this yet again and I'm prepared to resolve to 100%, here's why:
This specific announcement from April 13 2024 is just one in a series of other similar announcements
Each announcement includes a line like this:
Borrowers will begin receiving emails today informing them of their approvals. Their relief will be processed in the weeks following.
I searched all over the place to see if there were any reports of people who had a debt cancellation final email that was later rescinded and found a few cases where people presented issues, but very importantly, these seem like procedural issues and not from "Republicans/courts successfully nullifying 1-2 of these three plans"
Here are the collection of original press releases in the same 'series' of forgiveness, which is now removed from the Department of Education website. These were happening on a monthly basis. In each case, the 'totals' keep increasing. They were not being individually struck down:
"Borrowers will begin receiving emails from President Biden today telling them they are approved for forgiveness and will not need to take any further action to receive relief. In the coming days servicers will process the forgiveness and borrowers will see their loans forgiven on their accounts."
There was an injunction in June 2024 in Missouri that eventually led to the SAVE plan being struck down, but this document critically reports it is only looking at "prospective" relief and not going back to cancel SAVE plan items from before then
I can't find anything at all about the PSLF being broadly struck down
Can't find anything about the income based repayment plans being struck down, this seems like a long running program that was not just the popular political topic of the day
@Eliza I don't have time to dig into this, but it is certainly not 100%. SAVE plan and IDR plans are absolutely derailed. All 3 of the distinct pieces have not come to fruition. I've lost mana no matter what, but it is not a 100% YES resolution, that is inaccurate. I think the original market creator did a real disservice with a half-baked description and has created a lot of work for getting this resolved properly which is very unfortunate.
It looks like the SAVE plan cancellation was just blocked by an appeals court today. Given that, I don't think it actually went into effect?
@Gabrielle I am going to try to explain why I think that has no bearing on the market. My confidence level in this assessment is 50% -- I would love for someone to explain why it is correct or incorrect.
The market is SPECIFICALLY about part of the SAVE plan which was canceled for X number of people on a specific day with a specific action.
The link you shared is about EVERYONE ELSE on the SAVE plan.
I am 50% (1/2) confident that the 3.6 billion mentioned in this market is already completely done with and cannot be retroactively undone. I came to this assumption after reading numerous articles about the SAVE plan being canceled and not finding ANY details about 3.6 billion and 206,800 of forgiveness being undone.
This is a direct invitation for someone to refute my claim with any bit of evidence!
Trying to read some from the document you shared, let's see what we find:
The district court concluded they were likely to succeed on this claim and preliminarily enjoined the rule’s early loan forgiveness provisions.
Although the SAVE Rule was set to take full effect on July 1, 2024, the
Secretary designated several portions for early implementation, including
forgiveness for borrowers with low initial principal balances. ...The Department started forgiving loans under SAVE in February 2024. Biden-Harris Administration Approves $1.2 Billion in Loan Forgiveness.
Didn't find anything about the $3.6 billion or 206,800 specifically. But I do update from 50% to 40% on this chunk.
@Eliza Some other quotes about the injunctions mentioned in this document above:
In Missouri, U.S. District Judge John A. Ross in Missouri, blocked the SAVE plan from providing any additional loan forgiveness. Under the loan relief initiative, some borrowers can qualify for forgiveness after 10 years of repayments, instead of the typical 20 or 25 year span.
This makes it sound like that injunction was against future action and not retroactive to the 3.6 billion in April. I'd love to find more info though.
@Eliza Finally I feel like I found a reference to a group that includes the April ones and other months before the Missouri injunction:
Now I'm updating to 70% that the 3.6 from April did go into effect, I need to read the rest of this document still.
This is all from the June injunction in Missouri, here: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.moed.211135/gov.uscourts.moed.211135.35.0.pdf
@Eliza Updating to 90% that the already forgiven loans announced in April are not being clawed back based on this:
It says they are only asking for PROSPECTIVE relief, rather than retroactively canceling things.
I'm still confident most of this debt was canceled. I cannot find anything that specifically says any of these 3 cuts were un-cut. Propose resolving to 100%. @traders
@10thOfficial Are you sure? Can you provide the evidence that these three specific groups of loan forgiveness were not enacted?
@Eliza It looks like overall, Biden passed nearly $200 billion of student loan forgiveness. From what I can find out, at least some of the ones pertaining to this market were simply 'done' as soon as it was announced.
It looks like FUTURE forgiveness under the SAVE plan was eventually blocked, but some portion of the $3.6 billion for SAVE was probably already done before that happened.
Can't find any more updates about the 65,700 on the income repayment plan, but it looks like it probably went through
Same for the PSLF
My understanding is Mr. Trump is probably trying to disallow future use of these plans where possible, but the things already forgiven in 2024 are very unlikely to be clawed back after borrowers were told they had been forgiven. Can anyone clarify whether those SAVE forgiveness deals listed here were partially implemented or not before the SAVE plan was put into legal limbo?
This market looks likely to resolve to a percentage, not to No, as indicated by the description.