Basic
33
Ṁ2.0kDec 31
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
France has recently raised its terror alert to the highest level following an attack at a Moscow concert hall, which resulted in at least 137 fatalities. The attack has been claimed by ISIS, and graphic footage has been released. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal cited the Islamic State’s claim of responsibility and the threats facing the country as reasons for elevating the Vigipirate posture to its highest level: attack emergency. Additionally, two attempted terror attacks on French soil have been foiled since January, and 45 in total since 2017.
Resolves YES if there is a confirmed terrorist attack by ISIS on French soil in 2024, resulting in at least three deaths.
Resolves NO by 2025.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics + injure/kill one person?
31% chance
Will there be an act of terrorism using drones in Paris during the Olympics between July 24 - August 11?
19% chance
Will there be any terrorist activity that harms civilians in France during the 2024 Olympics?
51% chance
Will there be any terrorist activity that harms civilians in Paris during the 2024 Olympics?
32% chance
Will Europe see a rise in terrorist attacks in 2024?
36% chance
Will France send troops to Ukraine by the end of 2024?
29% chance
Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change in 2024?
23% chance
Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
62% chance
Is there going to be a terror attack in France during the Olympics in 2024, with at least 5 casualties?
13% chance
Will there be another terrorist attack that Russia blames on Ukraine in 2024, causing at least 100 deaths?
28% chance