Resolves to the quarter the ECB lowers interest rates first. It does not matter how much they lower it. Further increases are possible.
Close date might be extended.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
1,000
3.00Q2 is about these two meetings:
Arbitrage possible.
However, investors are already looking ahead to the new year and the majority are expecting sharp interest rate cuts in 2024: Fed funds futures, for example, are pricing in an initial easing by May at the latest. Key interest rates in the US are set to fall by a full percentage point by the end of the year. In the eurozone, the market consensus is even predicting interest rate cuts of 1.5 percentage points by December 2024, with ECB head Christine Lagarde's monetary watchdogs set to cut interest rates for the first time in March.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
(source)
The European Central Bank is done hiking interest rates and will stay on hold until at least July next year, according to economists in a Reuters poll, who said there was only a one-in-five chance the central bank hikes again this year. (source)