Manifold has a group for questions from the 2023 ACX contest. Scott has released the answers of blind mode participants in this post. Once all markets in the linked group have resolved, this market will resolve according to whether Manifold's probabilities on these events as of January 10th 2023 12:01am have a lower (better) Brier score than the median answers from the data in the linked post.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ780 | |
| 2 | Ṁ428 |
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Final Brier scores, (ignoring the N/A resolution) were:
0.172 for the blind mode mean
0.161 for the blind mode median
0.167 for Manifold
@BoltonBailey Intutively, I'd think that markets are a better way of aggregating community's knowledge than simply averaging out every participant's opinion, and that switching mean to median wouldn't make that much difference. I observe the opposite and I don't really know why.
@BoltonBailey (There is one market that was N/Aed which there was some discussion about, but the resolution of that market doesn't actually affect the standings.)
@SG Final brier scores are in the spreadsheet below, anyone feel free to check my work, I can try to re-resolve if I screwed up (I realize that I basically profited massively off of this, but it's not like the link down there hasn't been publicly showing Manifold losing for the past couple months).
I tried to use the blind mode predictions when making my full mode forecasts, and my impression was they were just really bad, whether I looked at median, average, tried to exclude outliers, etc.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?