What is the real percentage of American men who are paid OnlyFans subscribers?
What is the real percentage of American men who are paid OnlyFans subscribers?
8
580Ṁ272resolved Apr 12
ResolvedN/A
11%Other
8%
5-15%
2%
15-30%
1.0%
30-50%
0.4%
over 50%
78%
0-5%
I will choose the answer according to who has the best argument re: the real percentage of American men who are paid OnlyFans subscribers. Only options I create will be chosen.
Apr 4, 7:39pm: If you guys do not post arguments, this will be resolved as N/A.
Close date updated to 2022-04-20 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-04-29 11:59 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/onlyfans-ceo-explains-why-the-site-banned-porn.html surely hurt its customer base, right?
No; silly. At this point, though, I have to say that I have scarcely more information about the answer than I did when I started this market.
Plot twist: Enopoletus meant paid subscribers as in "people who subscribe on onlyfans (free or not) and get paid by someone, probably because they have a job"
https://thesmallbusinessblog.net/onlyfans-statistics/ "More than 7 million “fans” spend money on OnlyFans every month. Many more users only consume free content."
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=onlyfans has most interest in the past, so most accounts should currently not be paying subscribers, since subscription is monthly and i expect most paid subscribers to pay for exactly one month.
That is absolutely not an argument. My hunch that it's #4 (from the supposed ~200 million accounts by now, as many as 45% of which might be in the US, 80% male) has more verisimilitude, though I certainly am not crazy enough to entrust it with any certainty (if I did, I wouldn't even bother putting this market up).
I have a hunch that it's not more than 15%, and the leaderboard says that my hunches are pretty good. That counts as an argument, right?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.