I want to determine the counterfactual nature of Manifold donations, and I'm looking for a response ranging from 0 (indicating "no" they are not counterfactual) to 1 (indicating "yes" they are counterfactual).

My current belief is 0.5.

To make this more interesting I will subtract my 2023 Manifold donations (currently $800) from my personal donations.
For instance, if my Manifold donations total $800 and the chosen answer is 0.5, then I will donate $400 less than my original intended amount.

I will award 1000 mana to the response that provides the most compelling argument, probably based on the results of a well executed poll or a similar approach.

Additionally, to encourage active participation, I will offer a 10-25 mana bounty to interesting responses.