If a mundane explanation for the phenomena thought to be due to dark matter is found, what will it be?
24
184
860
2034
73%
Other
46%
Something related to stellar physics
31%
Unexpected GR solutions
24%
Weird effects in N-body dynamics
19%
Large scale electromagnetic fields
16%
Primordial asteroid sized black holes
10%
Instrumental errors in observations
Resolved
N/A
Axions

Mundane means no new particles, no new forces, no upheaval of GR, no major changes in our understanding of textbook cosmology. For instance dark matter somehow being allowed to be baryonic goes against textbook cosmology. Somehow generating primordial black holes does not, imo.

Feel free to add your answers.

In ten years from now I will resolve NA if a non-mundane explanation is found (e.g. MOND or some suitable DM particle) or if dark matter is still an unsolved problem.

Otherwise I will resolve yes the answer(s) that I deem to be correct in my interpretation of the scientific consensus of the time.

IMPORTANT: Axions were added as an option. IMO they are NOT a mundane explanation. Change my mind or I will have to resolve that option NA

Resolved axions to NA. Reasoning: axions are not mundane.

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Shouldn’t this be the type of market where all the percentages add up to 100? Only 1 of these, if any, can resolve right?

bought Ṁ2 Something related to... NO

@Rocks No, I don't think so. What if an unexpected GR solution is found that is also a weird effect in N-body dynamics? I can see options overlapping and contributing to a solution, especially if new options are added freely.

Are axions mundane? Debate

@mariopasquato IMPORTANT: in my opinion (as an astrophysicist) axions are not a mundane solution to dark matter. But maybe they are to theoretical or particle physicists. Absent a compelling argument for axions being mundane I will NA this one in a week.

@mariopasquato I agree with you

@Fion I mean, they are a new particle after all

bought Ṁ1 Instrumental errors ... NO

Unfortunately the new fees structure heavily distinctivises participating in conditional markets, especially if you believe NA is the most likely outcome (which I do). I've made some token bets, but I won't do more than that.

@Fion Right… I also believe NA is quite likely.

Can you check your question type? There's no option to add anything (and more specifically no "Other" to bet on)

bought Ṁ5 Large scale electrom... NO

@JureSmolar Added :)

@JureSmolar I thought I selected the type of question where anyone can add an answer. Does that not work for you?

@mariopasquato I see it now, though I have a feeling it’s in a different place than I remember it; did the ui change (at least on the mobile website which I’m guessing not many people use)? Or I was just blind earlier haha

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