Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a publicly reported assassination attempt on the current pope before the end of his reign. An assassination attempt is defined as any deliberate act intended to kill the pope, regardless of whether it results in injury. The attempt must be reported by reputable news organizations such as the BBC, CNN, or The New York Times. If no such attempt is reported by the time the pope's reign concludes, the market will resolve to "No."
Background
Historically, there have been several assassination attempts on popes. Notably:
Pope John Paul II: On May 13, 1981, he was shot and critically wounded by Mehmet Ali Ağca in St. Peter's Square. (history.com)
Pope Francis: During his 2021 visit to Iraq, two assassination plots were reportedly thwarted. British intelligence informed Iraqi authorities of a female suicide bomber and a van intending to target the pope. Both threats were neutralized before any harm occurred. (bbc.com)
Considerations
Security Measures: The Vatican employs extensive security protocols to protect the pope, especially during public appearances and international visits.
Public Exposure: The pope's role involves frequent public engagements, which can increase exposure to potential threats.
Historical Context: While assassination attempts have occurred, they are relatively rare given the long history of the papacy.
1,000Meowdy! twirls tail While the universe of politics can be as unpredictable as a laser pointer, the idea of an assassination attempt on a newly appointed pope before his reign ends is both dark and rare—like a black cat crossing a rainbow. Given heightened security and papal protections, I’d say the chance is lower than the market’s 64.3% feels. So, this kitty leans toward NO, but with a cautious mew! places 10 mana limit order on NO at 35% :3