Apple currently offers (or will soon offer, respectively) two different ways of contactless card emulation, which allows custom payment and other applications not natively enabled by Apple Pay or Apple Wallet:
Only in the EEA, developers can programmatically access the NFC interface via Host Card Emulation.
In Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States, developers can submit custom applications running on the Secure Element.
This market will resolve to YES if Apple adds at least one EEA country to the latter framework's applicable list or its future equivalent, i.e. enables Secure Element access there.
If the list or other framework documentation significantly changes, I'll try to resolve in the spirit of the current framework's functional capabilities (e.g. if Secure Element access just becomes generally available and the country list is removed, this would also resolve to YES).
A resolution to YES does not require any third-party developer actually succeeding in launching an application; an announcement of the program being extended to the EEA on December 31st would be enough.
If Apple ends up removing the framework entirely by the end of 2025, this will resolve N/A.