Will the Safe Bet Act 2024 pass?
Will the Safe Bet Act 2024 pass?
7
1kṀ6312026
28%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Proposed here https://x.com/reppaultonko/status/1834326990477746194
Seeks to
prevent wagering age to 21
implement affordability checks
limit advertisements and marketing
Here’s a good overview https://x.com/bittgdcg/status/1834332691505750393
And the full proposal
https://tonko.house.gov/uploadedfiles/safe_bet_legislative_outline_3.24.pdf
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the SAVE Act be enacted before the 2026 US elections
8% chance
Will it be legal for Americans to bet on elections in 2026?
85% chance
Will The John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act of 2021 pass the Senate before 2026?
6% chance
Will it be legal for Americans to bet on elections in 2028?
76% chance
If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?
72% chance
If Trump wins in 2024, will real money political prediction markets be legal before 2029?
66% chance