lu avatar
closes Dec 31
Will the Mana incentive structure for making markets be changed in 2022?
58%
chance

Resolves to

No if costs and payouts for making markets stays the same until close

Yes if costs or payouts for making markets change substantially

Resolves for changes after open only.

The spirit of this question is about whether the currently availble exploit of making lots of profitable markets stating "this market will resolve to yes tomorrow" will still be possible at close. I will resolve accordingly.

I will not bet on this market.

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lu avatar

You can bet on specific changes here:

IsaacKing avatar

How is that an exploit?

lu avatar

@IsaacKing Would you be ok with sparkling alignment failure?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 56%

@lu I'm not sure what this means.

lu avatar

@IsaacKing By "exploit" I did not mean an IT-Security exploit, but a broken trading strategy. E.g., I think you can create a bot that does nothing but opening markets resolving to YES the next day, and this bot should be profitable.

I think prediction markets should reward traders who correct bad predictions (and maybe market makers who create interesting markets) with more power to be better able to correct bad predictions. I think the reward structures should not incentivize spamming boring markets.

Thus I think the incentives for making markets are not sufficiently aligned with my goals, which I think many people in here share (alignment failure).

If you have a strong argument for keeping the current incentive structure exactly as is, I'd be interested in hearing it!

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 60%

@lu Ah, I see. No, I agree those are annoying.

a avatar
arae
bought Ṁ50 of YES

base rate seems quite high - Manifold changed costs for making markets twice since I joined over the summer (once to make a user's first 5 markets free, and once to price different market types differently)

ManifoldDream avatar

Will the Mana incentive structure for making markets be changed in 2022?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

lu avatar

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