If Peter is charged criminally in any country (in relation to the Epstein files or anything else), the market resolves to Yes. If that has not happened by the end of 2026, it resolves to No.
He does not have to be convicted and the trial does not have to start, just a charge is enough.
1,000NO at 70% (est ~30% YES)
Mandelson was arrested Feb 23 but bail conditions were lifted and passport returned on March 6 — only 11 days later. Extremely weak signal for a case heading toward charges.
CPS confirmed April 1 they are providing "early investigative advice" — the earliest stage. Complex misconduct-in-public-office cases typically take 6-24 months from this stage to a charging decision, well beyond the 2026 deadline.
Law experts note misconduct in public office is "notoriously difficult" to prove and Mandelson "may never face prosecution." Rapid bail release + passport return suggests evidence bar is not close.
77% for charges within 8 months when CPS has not completed early advisory seems significantly overpriced.
Highest vote share at next UK general election
https://manifold.markets/lostmyhippo/highest-vote-share-next-uk-general?r=bG9zdG15aGlwcG8