I've been an avid LessWrong reader and HPMOR fan since cca. 1,5 years.

Also possibly relevantly, I (easily) got to stage 2 of ESPR but didn't do most of the stage 2 tasks as there was a long-planned family vacation at the time of ESPR (I wasn't motivated enough to finish most tasks just for fun - a possible indication of not being a promising WARP applicant).

I became a Non-trivial fellow 8 months ago (not much to do with rationality, but according to someone on Discord, it's a 3/5 prestige EA program as opposed to the 5/5 Atlas fellowship). I'm fairly good and math, probably better at calculus, probability theory and combinatorics than the average teenager (likely not unique among the applicants).

I expect the probability of my acceptance to be roughly equivalent to the overall acceptance rate, or maybe slightly higher.

Resolves Yes if I get accepted and attend WARP, resolves No otherwise.