Will the Labour Party win at least 30 seats in Scotland at the next general election?
5
18
Ṁ65Ṁ130
2025
43%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if the Labour Party wins 30 or more seats in Scotland in the House of Commons at the next UK general election. Candidates suspended from the party still count as long as they appear as "Labour" (or "Labour and Co-operative") on the ballot paper (like Neale Hanvey in 2019).
Having won 41 out of 59 Scottish seats at the 2010 general election, Scottish Labour has collapsed at Westminster, winning just 1 seat in 2015, 7 in 2017, and 1 at the most recent general election in 2019. However, recent polling has led to speculation that the party will make big gains at the next general election.
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