Will Jeremy Hunt lose his seat at the next general election?
Will Jeremy Hunt lose his seat at the next general election?
14
130Ṁ3098resolved Jul 5
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if at the next UK general election, Jeremy Hunt fails to be elected to the House of Commons (regardless of which constituency he stands in; he is currently the MP for South West Surrey). It doesn't matter whether or not he stands as a Conservative. This market resolves to N/A if he is not a candidate in the next general election.
Inspired by this tweet by Sam Freedman: https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1655165111550476288
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.