The 2024 West Midlands mayoral election will take place on May 2, alongside other local elections in England. Andy Street, the Conservative incumbent, is seeking a third term. Street was first elected in 2017, beating the Labour candidate by less than 1% in an upset victory. He was then re-elected with a larger margin in 2021 (this election was delayed by a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic). The 2024 election will be the first to be held under first-past-the-post rather than supplementary voting.
This market resolves to the party (or named independent) that wins the election.
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@NoitUK How do they know? Do political parties get the results early or something?
P.S. Not meaning to sound aggressive, I’m just genuinely confused
@BonjTwo They don’t get the results this early but do often run their own exit polling, amongst other signs. If they’re saying they’ve lost it this early then their signals must be bad enough that they don’t think it’s close.