Will at least two of my friends accidentally dress up as the same person for a themed party?
9
170Ṁ311
resolved Jan 23
Resolved
NO

Throwing a party with roughly 20 guests today, the theme is dressing up as one of our Top 5 Spotify Artists (based on the 2022 Spotify Wrapped). I often connect with people based on taste in music, therefore, quite a lot of my friends should have similar tastes as well. We didn't tell each other what our costumes are gonna be, so two people having the same idea seems possible. I'll resolve this market tomorrow morning.


Close date updated to 2023-01-23 1:36 pm

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ28
2Ṁ14
3Ṁ14
4Ṁ10
Sort by:
predictedYES

Basically another form of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem where there are a couple dozen people but hundreds of pairs. Unlike the birthday problem, there aren't hundreds of equally likely options:
https://chartmasters.org/most-streamed-artists-ever-on-spotify/
so results should be even more concentrated

predictedNO

@PatMyron Surprisingly, each of my friends dressed up as someone different!

predictedYES

fun party idea, how many showed up?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules