This market will be at an odd percentage OR 0 (after rounding) when the market closes the 10th of January.
22
410Ṁ3442
resolved Jan 11
Resolved
YES

For example:

  1. 21% -> resolve YES

  2. 88% -> resolve NO

  3. 99.5% -> 100% (rounded) -> resolve NO

  4. 0.49% -> 0% (rounded) -> resolve YES

See market details for exact closing time.

Dec 29, 8:45pm: This market be at an odd percentage OR 0 (after rounding) when the market closes the 10th of January. → This market will be at an odd percentage OR 0 (after rounding) when the market closes the 10th of January.

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predictedYES

CatneeBot filled limit order Ṁ537/Ṁ1,000 YES at 81% 4 hours ago

Mikhail Samin bought Ṁ1,450 YES from 81% to 97% 4 hours ago

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 NO at 95% (cancelled) 4 hours ago

team odd's very lucky acceleration joined them

predictedYES

dang in 20 minutes it went from 38 to 95.

predictedYES

even potato rn

predictedNO

I figured that the attractor dynamics of 0 would be relevant, but people seem to be more in line with your reasoning.

This is definitely going to be a very tricky market, however, the odds should be slightly greater then 50% right? I'll take my chances for now

predictedNO

@SamVrana I figured that the attractor dynamics of 0 would be relevant, but people seem to be more in line with your reasoning.

How is it rounded? Down or to the nearest whole number?

predictedYES

@hmys You can look at the examples. It's rounded to nearest whole number, and .5 rounds up

@levifinkelstein The examples alone aren’t enough to explain the rounding rule. Another rounding rule consistent with your examples is that you round numbers ending in .5 to the closest even integer https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rounding

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