Will there be smoke at the start of Manifest?
resolved Sep 22

As some people might have noticed, the Bay Area's air quality has recently gotten worse due to wildfires in Northern California.

Resolves Yes if, on Sept 22, this (https://map.purpleair.com/1/mAQI/a10/p604800/cC0?select=148639#18.91/37.8605484/-122.2605634) air quality sensor, the one closest to RGI, is at "unhealthy for sensitive groups"/orange or above.

Resolves No if it is at "moderate"/yellow or below.

Resolves around ~3:40 to the current air quality (that's when I get off school lol)

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lag avatar

Sorry for resolving late. Air quality sensor was at 85 at 3:42, so I resolved using that measure. (the measure wasn't above 100 at 3:32 either)

4 replies
Shump avatar
Shumppredicted YES

@lag Are you sure you are looking at the right sensor. The link leads to this one, which has been above 100 for the entirety of September 22

lag avatar

@Shump it has, and it dipped down around 340, which is the time I resolved it to. I think your point has merit though, so I'll think about it ig. the point of the market was to see if there was going to be smoke at manifest and with the new readings there probably is

lag avatar

this is one of my first markets lol I'm not completely sure what I'm doing

lag avatar

@lag I also changed the market to "start of Manifest about a day ish before close, so I think I'll just keep it as no

JamesMcGirk avatar
James McGirk

Horrible this morning in Santa Cruz

meefburger avatar
Rickbought Ṁ10 of NO

Here's a forecast predicting "moderate": https://www.baaqmd.gov/about-air-quality/air-quality-forecast

1 reply
meefburger avatar
Rickbought Ṁ10 of YES

Update: The forecast now predicts an AQI of 105, which is slightly higher than the threshold between "moderate" and "Unhealthy for sensitive groups"

Joshuabought Ṁ10 ofYES
Joshua avatar