Will my all time profit graph show 0/ positive profit by the end of the year?

Personal•Personal Goals•EOY 2023•Mana

264

Ṁ5.5K

Ṁ365

resolved Dec 9

Resolved

YES

ALL

In the beginning of my time on Manifold, I made some bad trading decisions over time that brought my profit down to below -2000 (I've been surviving on managrams lol), but lately I've been able to improve my trading and my profits have been trending upwards since the beginning of October. Hopefully I'll be able to recover from my abysmal trading.

Resolves Yes if, at some time before the end of the year, my all time profit graph shows that I was at or above 0 profit for at least a day.

Resolves No if my all time profit graph does not show that I was at or above 0 for a day by the end of the year.

I won't be stopping myself from using free mana or self-resolving markets (but I haven't traded on a free mana market in a while and don't especially plan on doing so in the future). I will also not be stopping myself from accepting managrams, as they do not affect my profit graph (but they do allow me to bet more on markets).

I am at -Ṁ1,345 as of market creation.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
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2		Ṁ166
3		Ṁ24
4		Ṁ15
5		Ṁ5

23 Comments

12 Holders

53 Trades

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predicted YES

this will resolve now, my all time graph appears to show positive profit for a day now

predicted YES

in theory at 9pm my all time profit and daily profit should be equal so I can check using that

predicted YES

@lag but that doesn't mean anything lol 🤡

predicted YES

I think there's basically no way this will resolve no as I was just able to place bets on a market whose resolution was guaranteed by an announcement

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Resolves YES @lag

+33 as of the latest update

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington my criteria for resolving yes is that it has to be at 0/positive for at least a day. I think that this will resolve yes, and once I open my laptop I'll find the time where it became positive and post it

predicted YES

@lag okay, it looks like it became green between 8 and 9 pm, closer to 9pm, ill resolve it at 9pm today if it stays above 0 for the whole day

predicted YES

@lag Ah, silly me not reading properly, but yes, looking likely anyway!

predicted YES

-14

I think based on my weekly and monthly profit I will hopefully be able to resolve this yes in a few days

just hoping that a market doesn't resolve unexpectedly

predicted YES

-73 I'm getting closer

bought Ṁ25 YES from 62% to 65%

predicted YES

-267 theres definitely a much better chance that this market resolves yes

bought Ṁ50 YES

predicted YES

-418 rn, looking more possible

predicted YES

@lag but I think most of that was from markets resolved at the end of november

predicted YES

I'm doing better now and have gotten to -830 profit, so it's going to take a lot to get up to 0 in a month

predicted YES

@lag if i can keep up my current profiting streak then I think this market has a chance of resolving yes

predicted YES

im making consistent profit but i tried to manipulate a market and it failed lol. ive gotten back to consistent profit but its been slow and idk if ill be able to get to positive profit unless i go crazy on a market. still gonna try tho.

predicted YES

i feel like im hitting a profit slump rn, I havent made meaningful profit in a while

predicted YES

@lag Look for markets where people made old/bad bets and correct the market (much easier than making good bets on popular markets)

predicted YES

at -639 for some reason i think it may have bugged lol

predicted YES

@lag it's back to normal 😁

predicted YES

above -1000 profit 💪

predicted YES

I just need to do this again in November 🙏🙏🙏

Try to bet on "simple" markets like the ones in Manifold User Retention because those are simple to track and you always have the full information for betting