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Will the Boston Celtics win more games than the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2023-2024 NBA regular season?
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resolved Mar 27
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YES

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bought Ṁ2,500 YES

@kyle This resolves YES. Milwaukee has 26 losses, Celtics have 57 wins, 82 game season means bucks can’t reach 57 wins

Regarding the last 5 season there is no history between Milwaukee Bucks and Celtics. Milwaukee has a median of winning of 56 , while Celtics have 49. The % difference is 14%. Looking the winning average of the last five years, Milwaukee’s team has the 12% more of winnings (54.2 vs  48.2). 

It’s also true that in the last two seasons the difference between the two teams in terms of numbers looks more closer than before. Analyzing the trend line of their winning results, I saw that Milwaukee will have more victories than Celtics this year. 

@AlessioMorgantini The Celtics are currently leading the Eastern Conference with a 5-1 record, while the Bucks are in second place with a 4-2 record. The Celtics acquired Porzingis (which is dominating in and outside the paint) and Jrue Holiday (arguably the best perimeter defender in the entire league, and an elite shooter and facilitator, and coming directly from the Bucks). Derrick White is having his best season ever and so is Tatum. Given these factors, I believe Celtics are going to outperform the Bucks by the end of the season, mostly given by their elite defense (and clearly by the presence of Tatum, Brown, and many other incredibly skilled players). Given that in the last 10 games the Celtics won 6 of those with a team that was definitely not as good as the current one, I believe it is very difficult that Milwaukee will have a better record than Boston.

According to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Celtics have a 65% chance of winning more games than the Bucks this season. FiveThirtyEight's forecast gives the Celtics a 66% chance of winning the Eastern Conference, while the Bucks have a 34% chance.

Based on these projections, it appears that the Celtics are the favorites to win more games than the Bucks this season. However, the NBA is a very unpredictable league, and anything can happen.

https://www.espn.com/nba/bpi

Utilizing Moving Average (5 years) and Linear Regression (10 years) for win records of both teams since the year 2000, I tried to predict wins for each year.

Using Moving Average, the model is accurate 13/23 times (57%).

Using Linear Regression, the model is accurate 14/23 times (61%). 

Both predict that the Bucks will win more in 2024. Assuming 57% as the accuracy of the prediction, we have better odds than a 50% guess.

Another factor is the Bucks' acquisition of the star Damian Lillard, making the Bucks more favorable winners.

Model Link 


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he Boston Celtics have a strong chance to win more games than the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2023-2024 NBA season. With key player acquisitions like Jrue Holiday and a solid performance from stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, the Celtics are poised for a robust season and potentially a higher win tally than the Bucks

https://985thesportshub.com/listicle/stewart-my-concerns-with-the-2023-24-boston-celtics/