Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes?

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Resolves YES if a civilization descendant to our current (2024 human) civilization launches Von Neumann probes that successfully replicate in at least one star system other than the sol system before Von Neumann probes created by a civilization not descendant to ours are detected.

An artificial intelligence civilization counts as descendant as long as it is (co) created by us (or our descendants, including artificial descendants)

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Obviously? Unless there's some weird, particular reason that those probes are vastly more likely to show up in the next 100 years than the billions of years that passed thus far.

predictedYES

@Jono3h "We see a lot more of the universe suddenly" would be an answer, though I'm guessing Neumann probes are not particularly stealthy. Or, if they're made to be stealthy then it will probably only be visible the moment humans cannot help but get probed, in which case I don't care about Manifold money anyway.

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