How will "[Let's play] Civilization VI" end?
How will "[Let's play] Civilization VI" end?
37
1.1kṀ2773resolved Aug 6
100%16%
Game has not ended before this market closes (December 31 2025)
18%
Science victory
1.4%
Culture victory
17%
Domination victory
5%
Religion victory
6%
Diplomacy victory
1.0%
Score/Time victory
36%
Defeat
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bought Ṁ10 Game has not ended b... NO1y
I'm a bit curious about the mentality behind the majority answer being "game has not ended before this market closes" and I'm wondering if I missed something. If we play one turn a day, and there are 667 days left from now until then - the likelihood of neither us nor the AI winning something is pretty low, especially on quick speed.
@ibuprofen Id assume the skepticism is about actually running this (somewhat laborious) project continuously for the next two years without losing interest
@Ziddletwix Very good point. I did notice that the biggest vote towards no is the person running the project though, so I figure that probably lends some credence to the commitment. Even if they give up halfway, there's a really strong chance it'll be over.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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