Eugene, Oregon will vote on switching to the Star Voting system (Score Then Automatic Runoff). It purports to solve the most egregious issues with ranked choice voting. Will it pass when it's voted on in May? NA if it's not on the ballot.
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Looks like this failed already? https://www.klcc.org/politics-government/2024-05-21/eugene-voters-appear-to-reject-star-voting-proposal
https://results.oregonvotes.gov/ResultsSW.aspx?type=CTYALL&cty=09&map=CTY also says it failed, but are "unofficial" results. Is it OK to call it based on the unofficial results?
@Snarflak I just put up a large limit NO at 4% if you want to cash out without slippage.
@Snarflak 15 minutes ago if you had cashed out all your no shares you would have seen the probability go up quite a bit (slippage in the price) and so on average the price you get for each no share is lower. Now with my limit order I'll prevent the market from going above 4%, so each no share is worth at least .96 mana. That said, if you aren't in a rush to get your money back, and you think this is less than 4% likely to pass, then don't sell.
@kenakofer I'm in no rush and I think this ballot measure has already failed.
For some reason I was thinking that I had made this market and needed to resolve it, but I didn't; you did. lol. Resolve it whenever you want. I guess I was confusing it with https://manifold.markets/Snarflak/will-vermonts-condorcet-ranked-choi
@Stralor Why do you think RCV is better than STAR voting? Maybe a Condorcet method would work better, but generally RCV means IRV, which is a terrible voting method (the second-worst, right after plurality).
@PlasmaBallin I guess when I think RCV I think about STV. I'm not convinced Condorcet is the best, but it seems more aligned with STAR. I'm a bit rusty on all of this (and didn't need to research when the option was STAR vs. plurality), but perhaps it's block voting I'm thinking of
@Stralor it's radically superior to IRV actually, and simpler too.
@PlasmaBallin exactly. in general, IRV advocates misunderstand basic social choice theory and fall for a lot of common myths like "IRV guarantees majority winners".
@clay fair enough! curious to see how it plays out, like if it leads to only milquetoast candidates getting elected
@Stralor This is STAR Voting, which is far better than RCV. RCV is a poorly-designed system that suffers from the spoiler effect and vote-splitting, perpetuating polarization and a two-party system.
WTF.
https://eugeneweekly.com/2024/05/02/voters-mark-your-ballots/#aesop-image-component-192255-7
City of Eugene Measures
Measure No: 20-349 STAR Voting
Amends Charter, changes method for electing mayor and city councilors.
NO
We really wanted to like STAR Voting — which stands for Score Then Automatic Runoff. Our system could use a change, and some of the STAR Voting arguments about voting our conscience and reflecting the will of the people resonate with us.
That said, groups like the Tribal Democracy Project oppose STAR, saying, “It’s not only confusing, it gives more power to those who already like the status quo, and disadvantages everyone else.”
Honestly, we found it confusing, too, and the risk of further disenfranchising Indigenous and voters of color is a big concern.
@Snarflak yes, it's insane. they just took their word for it, with no evidence. and "tribal democracy project" appears to be an astroturf org.