Will Subnautica 2 have more peak players in the first month of Early Access than Subnautica: Below Zero?

Question

Subnautica 2 is planning to enter early access on May 14th. Based on data from SteamCharts, Subnautica: Below Zero was released in early access on Feb 2019 and had a peak of 7,468 players that month. Will Subnautica 2 have a peak greater than 7,468 according to SteamCharts in May 2026 (the first month of it being in early access)?

If Subnautica 2 does not release on the expected day then the market goes to N/A

If Subnautica 2 does not release on the expected day then the market goes to N/A

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 72% chance (3 traders, as of May 5, 2026).

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