The Learning Policy Institute (LPI) annually estimates the number of U.S. teaching positions that are either:

1. Vacant or unfilled; or

2. Filled by teachers who are not fully certified for their assignments.

LPI's 2026 teacher-shortage factsheet reported:

• 387,843 teachers not fully certified for their assignments

• 37,569 unfilled teaching positions

• 425,412 combined positions

LPI describes this as a minimum estimate because some states do not report complete data.

This market forecasts the corresponding combined national estimate in LPI's 2027 annual teacher-shortage factsheet or update.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves according to the combined number of teaching positions that LPI's 2027 annual teacher-shortage publication says were either:

• Unfilled or vacant; or

• Filled by teachers not fully certified for their assignments.

If LPI explicitly publishes a combined total, that number will be used. If it publishes the two components but not their sum, the market will resolve using the sum of those components.

The applicable publication will be LPI's official 2027 successor to An Overview of Teacher Shortages: 2026, regardless of minor changes to its title or presentation. State-level figures will not be independently reconstructed when LPI provides a national combined estimate.

The value displayed by LPI seven days after the 2027 publication first appears will be used, allowing time for immediate corrections. Later revisions will not change the resolution.

If LPI does not publish a comparable 2027 national estimate by December 31, 2027, or changes its methodology so substantially that no comparable combined figure can reasonably be identified, this market resolves N/A.