TLDR
I have to choose 6 econ courses during my undergrad. Bet on which ones, in retrospect, I'll think I should have chosen. I'll resolve those 6 to Yes and the rest to No.
About the Market
I'm doing my undergrad in economics right now. I have to take six electives in economics. I have finished 3 semesters and have 3 more to go. I can distribute the electives between the semesters whatever way I want. All courses are 6 months, most end with an exam.
This market will resolve one year after I've finished my degree. One year after I have my degree, I will resolve the market to the 6 electives that I think I should have taken during my degree.
About me:
I won't tell you what specific courses I find interesting, or you'd all just bet on those.
You probably know most relevant information about me just because I made this market.
I like Less Wrong, am an EA, and am pretty interested in doing good with my career, but I'm not sure yet in which way.
You can ask me questions.
Resolution details
I will take everything into consideration, such as difficulty, topic, relevance, quality of professor, etc. I will not resolve to the 6 electives that I think would have been best for me individually, but to the 6 that, in combination, would have been best for me.
E.g., I might think the best 6 courses are all micro courses, but I'd rather see a couple of different areas, so I could think that overall 2 micro, 1 stats, 1 macro, and 2 finance would be the best combination.
If I'm unsure about two courses, I might resolve both to 50%, or one to 20% and one to 80%. The important thing is that, overall, all probability will add up to 600%.
I probably added all available courses, but if I forgot one or if a new course is offered, I'll add it to the market.
Sometimes a course isn't offered; I will ignore this. E.g., if I want to take environmental economics during my sixth semester but it isn't offered for some reason, I might still resolve in favor of environmental economics.
Obviously I won't just resolve to the 6 courses I end up taking.
More on the Courses
Here is a short list of the econ courses the uni offers. Here is a longer description of all courses (both in German).
Related questions
Small warning:
I'm considering N/Aing options that won't be available for me to take anyway. I think this wouldn't be unfair to the traders, but if you all find this super unfair, I won't do it.
It's just that at the moment, there are a bunch of courses that are almost never offered by the university anyway, and N/Aing them would make the market more efficient/useful, I think.
@Panfilo Do you think one year after university won't be enough and waiting for longer so I have more hindsight would be better, or do you think fundamentally that predicting what I will like won't work and, e.g., just asking people or using the bounty system would be better?
@justifieduseofFallibilism The most productive method by far would be to get alums to bet on professors. Doing a long-term bounty might be pretty good though!
As a tip 600%/34=17.6%.
Also I won't place any bets.