Gaming YouTuber videogamedunkey has announced his new games publishing company he's starting with his wife, fellow YouTuber Leahbee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEt27Jgp8gs
Will the company, Bigmode, publish at least one game in 2023? This market resolves YES immediately if a Bigmode-published game is released to market in 2023, and NO at the end of the year otherwise.
Betting policy: I will not bet in this market.
(E/N: I would love to see better near-term operationalizations of the general idea of whether the company will succeed!)
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@AngolaMaldives I'm going to tentatively say no, since that seems like a weird edge case and I don't like it when weird edge cases matter a lot in resolving markets, plus I think there's a justifiable reading of "released to market" that excludes games that have already been released.
If folks chime in and say this seems wrong I am open to hearing arguments against.
RE: Operationalizations of whether the company will succeed:
Bigmode is planning on filling a variety of roles as a publisher (listed on their website as: Funding, Development support, PR & community management, QA, porting & localization, Merchandising), which will have different success criteria and time horizons. The first game they "publish" will probably just be them doing the PR campaign for a game that was already almost out the door. The first game fully funded by Bigmode will take a lot longer.
Each of those roles could have markets built around whether they actually succeed at doing those things by some time frame.
Personally I'd call the company "successful" if they first publish a game that they funded at early stages, then, counting only games funded after that launch, do so again within 3 years. (ie: can they do end-to-end publishing without getting eaten by the second system effect.)