Background Norway has held two referendums on EU membership (1972 and 1994), both resulting in rejection. While Norway maintains close ties with the EU through the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement, recent polls show increasing support for EU membership, with 35.3% in favor according to recent surveys. This can however change quickly if e.g. Norway falls in the middle of a trade war or geographical tension between the EU and the US.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Norway's government officially announces a referendum on EU membership between January 20, 2025 (the start of what would have been Trump's second term) and January 20, 2029 (the end of what would have been Trump's second term). The market will resolve NO if no such announcement is made during this period.

For clarity:

• The announcement must come from an authorized Norwegian government official or body

• The announced referendum does not need to be binding, but can be advisory like previous referendums.

• Discussions or debates about holding a referendum without an official announcement do not count

• The actual referendum does not need to take place during this timeframe - only the announcement matters

Considerations This market's timeframe refers to what would have been Trump's second presidential term (2025-2029), regardless of whether Trump actually serves as president during this period. The market will still resolve based on Norway's actions during these specific dates.