Currently when you create a Yes/No market, it always starts out being initialized to 50%, even if you as the market creator know that the probability is highly skewed towards 0% or 100%.
Currently this can only be rectified by the market creator buying additional shares after market creation to better reflect the true probability.
This market will resolve Yes if by end-of-year 2023 Manifold adds an option at Market creation time to initialize a Yes/No market to something other than 50/50. It still counts if this costs the market-maker additional mana.
This market is about what can be done via the app and website GUI, not about what can be done via the API.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ393 | |
| 2 | Ṁ117 | |
| 3 | Ṁ96 | |
| 4 | Ṁ87 | |
| 5 | Ṁ78 |
This market is based on a faulty assumption, sort of - you can still do this with the API. I don't want to buy YES, since you might have had an implicit "on the main site" in mind. I can see arguments for leaving this market open, resolving YES, or resolving N/A.
@Conflux Interesting, thanks for the backstory! Makes sense that they used to have it, since it seems like a common sense feature
@Conflux Hmm a daily bonus = 50 mana, and amount needed to create a new market = 50 mana. Wonder if we can still call it "free" :)
@firstuserhere it’s still your liquidity, which is the difference - so the trick wouldn’t work
@jonsimon The other reason for its removal was that setting it too high or low made it too easy for it to fluctuate wildly - if it was set to 1%, it didn't take much to flip it to 100% and back, and bet amounts differing by Ṁ1 might change the probability by ~10%. Limit orders and house-provided liquidity make this a bit better, though. There was an intermediate stage where you could choose between "Unlikely" (25%), "Even" or "Likely" (75%), which was removed to simplify the creation process.