Will Manifold allow users to create Yes/No Markets that aren't initialized to 50/50 by end-of-year 2023?
closes Jan 1

Currently when you create a Yes/No market, it always starts out being initialized to 50%, even if you as the market creator know that the probability is highly skewed towards 0% or 100%.

Currently this can only be rectified by the market creator buying additional shares after market creation to better reflect the true probability.

This market will resolve Yes if by end-of-year 2023 Manifold adds an option at Market creation time to initialize a Yes/No market to something other than 50/50. It still counts if this costs the market-maker additional mana.

This market is about what can be done via the app and website GUI, not about what can be done via the API.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young

This market is based on a faulty assumption, sort of - you can still do this with the API. I don't want to buy YES, since you might have had an implicit "on the main site" in mind. I can see arguments for leaving this market open, resolving YES, or resolving N/A.

2 replies
jonsimon avatar
Jon Simon

@NcyRocks Yes, I meant via the GUI

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simon

@jonsimon updated description to clarify

Conflux avatar

They used to do this! Then they made daily free markets and realized you could start them at 99, bet NO, resolve NO, profit. Then they got rid of free markets but never readded the feature.

6 replies
Conflux avatar

@Conflux To be clear, they forced markets to start at 50, then got rid of free markets.

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simon

@Conflux Interesting, thanks for the backstory! Makes sense that they used to have it, since it seems like a common sense feature

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherebought Ṁ10 of YES

@Conflux Hmm a daily bonus = 50 mana, and amount needed to create a new market = 50 mana. Wonder if we can still call it "free" :)

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicts YES

@firstuserhere it’s still your liquidity, which is the difference - so the trick wouldn’t work

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young

@jonsimon The other reason for its removal was that setting it too high or low made it too easy for it to fluctuate wildly - if it was set to 1%, it didn't take much to flip it to 100% and back, and bet amounts differing by Ṁ1 might change the probability by ~10%. Limit orders and house-provided liquidity make this a bit better, though. There was an intermediate stage where you could choose between "Unlikely" (25%), "Even" or "Likely" (75%), which was removed to simplify the creation process.

Undox avatar

@Conflux example of exploited free market: https://manifold.markets/Undox/-c19dffdc3887