Will resolve YES if Nvidia has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers.
Mar 1, 9:10pm: Will Amazon be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023? → Will Nvidia be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
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@MarcusAbramovitch I thought that the whole point of prediction markets were that they priced in acts of god? What if something implodes in the next 2 days?
I commented on something literally last week. Seems comedically premature to start resolving other people's "end of 2023" markets before the end of 2023. Stuff like this is why I'm mostly inactive now 🙃
@jonny Sorry, i will stop resolving. It looked like your profile was inactive (based on bets and markets created)
@jonny I still think you should be resolving these markets. They are resolved since the price can't change anymore since stocks don't trade on weekends
@MarcusAbramovitch what if one of the companies ceases to exist between now and Monday?
Where is the act of god quote btw?
FWIW, i think in general, we should be resolving markets that are guaranteed because there is a massive liquidity shortage. I wish mods would start resolving questions that are guaranteed. We have unresolve if absolutely necessary.
In this case, I still think this resolves yes. The paperwork to dissolve a company for it to cease to exist actually can't happen on the weekend
@jonny How would it cease to exist at a weekend? Filing for bankruptcy on a Sunday may be possible but does that cause the company to cease to exist. The value on 2nd Jan may be lower but the price is still the last traded price.
Can't see a sunday trading session being arranged with very little notice either.
@MarcusAbramovitch Again, I don't view these markets as "guaranteed" until the resolution date. If there is a massive liquidity shortage that seems like a problem with the market mechanisms in general, premature resolution doesn't seem like the way to go for me.
If you want to resolve these markets then whatever, I guess. Seems like a great way to disincentivise market creators.
@jonny i literally stopped right away.
I also think "premature resolution" is a market mechanism. And i really do think that it would be good to resolve markets that are guaranteed and unresolve later if needed
@jonny >I don't view these markets as "guaranteed"
Fair enough it is your question and reducing likelihood of a revised resolution is good.
I happen to disagree with your suggested possibilities like MAD or even whole planet being blasted to pieces - the event to cause the company to cease to exist has not happened so the company still technically exists with its assets in a different condition and even though it is obviously worth a lot less if anything at all the rules of valuation use the last traded price.
Nevertheless the chance of a Sunday trading session being organised seems very very low perhaps it is not quite zero.
@ChristopherRandles It would require approval from regulatory agencies first all of whom are all holiday until January 2nd or January 8th. So yea, not happening.
Nvidia is ranked as the world's sixth-largest company. It has continued to increase from the 24th spot in the year 2021 to the 8th spot in 2022 and presently in the 6th spot. (PWC, 2022) The company's processor hardware is powering the AI revolution. It is also making software and services a bigger part of its growth strategy, and it could have huge payoffs with time (Noonan, 2023). 2023 is almost over. The chances that NVIDIA will leave the number 10 spot are infinitesimal.