Resolution criteria

The 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026. The market resolves YES if Josh Shapiro wins the general election and NO if he loses. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Pennsylvania Department of State (https://www.pa.gov/en/government/how-government-works/elections.html).

Background

Shapiro announced in January 2026 that he would run for reelection to a second term. Shapiro was first elected with 56.5% of the vote in 2022, defeating Republican Doug Mastriano by 15 points. Pennsylvania's Republican Party endorsed Stacy Garrity, the twice-elected state treasurer, to challenge Shapiro. Shapiro is reporting the most money raised and the most cash on hand heading into an election year of any campaign for governor in Pennsylvania history. A Quinnipiac University survey found 60% of Pennsylvania voters approved of Shapiro's job performance, while he held a 16-point edge over Garrity.

Considerations

Garrity is widely seen as a more formidable opponent than Shapiro faced in 2022, though many national and state Republicans think she faces an uphill battle and some privately expect her to lose because Shapiro has high job approval ratings and a huge war chest. The 2026 election is expected to be good for Democrats with Trump becoming an increasingly unpopular president.