Resolves NO if Russia takes over the Bakhmut 2 train station by the end of April. Refer to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve NO. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded by the end of April, the market will resolve YES.
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Hey @johnleoks, I'm just clarifying, is the win condition still the train station being captured or is it just waiting for the ISW to change from claimed to confirmed.
@higherLEVELING If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve NO. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded by the end of April, the market will resolve YES. It's the inverse of Jack's market.
Not ISW but here's a example of what's happening and why jack is banning me so fanatically.
Russia is not going for the train station. It's going for the brigade headquarters which is the main concentration of Ukrainian forces.
This is why they can advance while completely ignoring the train station and at the same time get bogged down engaging the real Ukrainian forces they haven't met yet.
@Akzzz123 Similar to the other Bakhmut markets.
If the Russians advance to the point where the train station is captured, that means Bakhmut is lost.
@johnleoks I wouldn't say that losing the train station is that significant to the actual war and whether Ukraine keeps fighting for the rest of Bakhmut. It's just a specific point that can be used to resolve a prediction market.
@jack They can keep fighting to keep the rest of Bakhmut, doesn't mean they're successfully defending it though, especially when it appears that 80% of the city is taken. I have to set the line somewhere, I think the train station being captured is reasonable.
@johnleoks Yeah, I agree that using it as the resolution criteria is very reasonable, I just wanted to call out that the fighting will likely go on and it would probably be an overstatement to say that Bakhmut is lost.
@jack I shouldn't have used the word "lost" since that's not what this market question is about. "Failed to successfully defend" is more accurate.
@Akzzz123 Oh, I'm completely stupid and assumed without any proper reasons this was about Ukraine still holding some part of it at the end of the month. Thanks for asking this!
@NamesAreHard Lol Yeah, this market is the negative of other similar markets. Thanks for the free money though.
@EjjeJuw Maybe you should make your own market? :) The best thing about this market is that there is a clear, verifiable resolution point.