@alangrow Yeah, looks like they're advancing so slowly (especially given that yellow parts are necessarily overestimated because milbloggers gonaa be milbloggers) that this market falls to NO. (My still keeping YES shares is more of a consolatory-prize bet - I would prefer Russia to stagger so I buy bets for some of its advances to consolate me if they don't stagger.)

predicted NO

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Updated Bakhmut control timelapse, 02/26 - 03/24: https://imgur.com/a/ZGUYKSl

The battle rages on, with no end in sight
As Ukraine's troops decide to stay and fight
Their hold on Bakhmut may be strong and bold
But in March, will they stay or fold?

bought Ṁ20 of YES

To the NOs: what exactly do you think is going to happen in Bakhmut? The changing control-of-terrain maps, not to mention other markets, suggest Russian control of the entire city soon. This is either a very optimistic bet that Ukraine holds Bakhmut, or a very pessimistic bet that encirclement is more likely than withdrawal.

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1633936898757369858?s=46&t=fdgdiEzkLwQ2qvItoWggvg

predicted NO

@alangrow The Russian advance has stalled for days now.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@Jelle Hopium. Here's a timelapse of ISW's control-of-terrain maps for the last couple weeks: https://imgur.com/a/4vzHlGl

Russian progress is clear from the timelapse. Manifold doesn't animate inline gifs, so here are the 4 frames as still images. Suggest looking at timelapse though for a better sense of how this unfolding.

predicted YES

@alangrow Let's see if I can get these in chrono order for you...

predicted NO

@alangrow and Russia's advance is still stalled...

Everything you're sending is old news.

predicted YES

Not sure how continued advances on 03/09 qualified as "stalled" and "old news" two days later but okay! Here's an updated ISW timelapse showing more incremental advances on 03/11 and 03/14.

https://imgur.com/a/YVYkjWa

bought Ṁ195 of NO

@alangrow Russia is still slowly progressing and Ukraine is still holding on, as expected. Ukraine has doubled down on Bakhmut, I doubt they're going anywhere.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

@alangrow > To the NOs: what exactly do you think is going to happen in Bakhmut?

I think the Ukrainians probably will hold back the Russians. And I think this even more after the Ukrainian command describes conditions as having "stabilized". But I guess we'll see.

I think that with time, western weapons will continue to flow in on Ukraine's side, and the Russian ammo situation will get worse as opposed to better. Russia has spent lots of resources and lives in Bakhmut, and in days/weeks/months they will have to deal with an offensive from Ukraine.

bought Ṁ85 of YES

How does this resolve if they can't pull out because they get fully encircled and have to surrender?

predicted YES

@NamesAreHard That wouldn't meet the criteria of resolving this market as a Yes.

Is this the same or different?

@PS Similar but not completely the same. It could be possible for the Russians to "have control" over Bakhmut while the Ukrainian army is still there.