Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut in March? | Manifold Markets

closes Apr 1

Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut in March?

16%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/status/1631011297335599104

Sort by:

The battle rages on, with no end in sight
As Ukraine's troops decide to stay and fight
Their hold on Bakhmut may be strong and bold
But in March, will they stay or fold?

Alan Growbought Ṁ20 of YES

To the NOs: what exactly do you think is going to happen in Bakhmut? The changing control-of-terrain maps, not to mention other markets, suggest Russian control of the entire city soon. This is either a very optimistic bet that Ukraine holds Bakhmut, or a very pessimistic bet that encirclement is more likely than withdrawal.

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1633936898757369858?s=46&t=fdgdiEzkLwQ2qvItoWggvg

Jelleis predicting NO at 45%

@alangrow The Russian advance has stalled for days now.

Alan Growbought Ṁ100 of YES

@Jelle Hopium. Here's a timelapse of ISW's control-of-terrain maps for the last couple weeks: https://imgur.com/a/4vzHlGl

Russian progress is clear from the timelapse. Manifold doesn't animate inline gifs, so here are the 4 frames as still images. Suggest looking at timelapse though for a better sense of how this unfolding.

Alan Growis predicting YES at 37%

@alangrow Let's see if I can get these in chrono order for you...

Jelleis predicting NO at 41%

@alangrow and Russia's advance is still stalled...

Everything you're sending is old news.

Alan Growis predicting YES at 32%

Not sure how continued advances on 03/09 qualified as "stalled" and "old news" two days later but okay! Here's an updated ISW timelapse showing more incremental advances on 03/11 and 03/14.

https://imgur.com/a/YVYkjWa

Jellebought Ṁ195 of NO

@alangrow Russia is still slowly progressing and Ukraine is still holding on, as expected. Ukraine has doubled down on Bakhmut, I doubt they're going anywhere.

NamesAreHardbought Ṁ85 of YES

How does this resolve if they can't pull out because they get fully encircled and have to surrender?

johnleoksis predicting YES at 70%

@NamesAreHard That wouldn't meet the criteria of resolving this market as a Yes.

Is this the same or different?

@PS Similar but not completely the same. It could be possible for the Russians to "have control" over Bakhmut while the Ukrainian army is still there.

Connor Williams bought Ṁ30 YES from 15% to 16%

Daniel Zeitoun bought Ṁ50 NO at 15%

Jelle bought Ṁ420 NO from 19% to 15%

Jelle bought Ṁ195 NO from 21% to 19%

Jelle bought Ṁ150 NO from 23% to 21%

Evan Harper bought Ṁ17 YES from 22% to 23%

Dmytro Bulatov bought Ṁ10 NO at 22%

Alan Grow bought Ṁ100 YES from 18% to 22%

Alexander Raymond bought Ṁ30 YES from 17% to 18%

harfe sold Ṁ51 YES from 19% to 17%

higherLEVELING sold Ṁ50 NO from 18% to 19%

higherLEVELING bought Ṁ50 NO from 19% to 18%

Alexander Raymond bought Ṁ85 YES from 15% to 19%

Alexander Raymond bought Ṁ30 YES from 14% to 15%

degtorad bought Ṁ20 NO at 14%

degtorad bought Ṁ30 NO at 14%

harfe bought Ṁ40 YES from 13% to 14%

Nikita Sokolsky bought Ṁ50 YES from 11% to 13%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ33/Ṁ43 YES at 11% (cancelled)

Svenbonne bought Ṁ1,100 NO from 16% to 10%

Svenbonne sold Ṁ97 YES from 20% to 16%

Alex... filled limit order Ṁ133/Ṁ133 NO at 20%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ375 NO from 27% to 22%

Alexander Raymond bought Ṁ80 YES from 23% to 27%

Parks bought Ṁ10 NO at 23%

Alexander Raymond bought Ṁ50 YES from 21% to 23%

Erick Ball sold Ṁ10 YES from 22% to 21%

Evan Harper bought Ṁ27 YES from 20% to 22%

Erick Ball bought Ṁ10 YES at 20%

Stinkfist570 bought Ṁ20 NO at 20%

Isaac bought Ṁ30 NO from 21% to 20%

johnleoks bought Ṁ80 NO from 22% to 21%

Jelle bought Ṁ10 NO at 22%

Jelle bought Ṁ100 NO from 23% to 22%

Jelle bought Ṁ100 NO from 25% to 23%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ120 NO from 27% to 25%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ70 NO from 28% to 27%

Mitch Howe bought Ṁ50 YES from 25% to 28%

Mick Bransfield sold Ṁ86 YES from 30% to 25%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ45 NO from 31% to 30%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ70 NO from 32% to 31%

Jesus Of Sivar bought Ṁ10 NO at 32%

xander bought Ṁ10 NO from 33% to 32%

johnleoks bought Ṁ50 NO from 34% to 33%

bravoechonovember bought Ṁ20 YES from 33% to 34%

Kevin Lalik bought Ṁ10 NO at 33%

John Cunningham bought Ṁ5 YES at 33%

Jelle bought Ṁ90 NO from 35% to 33%

cos filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 YES at 33%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 39%

Related markets

Will the Ukrainian army successfully maintain defending Bakhmut against the invading Russians in March?84%

Will the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut get encircled by the Russians and surrender/get wiped out in March?5%

Will Ukraine control any territory near Azov sea by end of March 2023?6%

Related markets

Will the Ukrainian army successfully maintain defending Bakhmut against the invading Russians in March?84%

Will the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut get encircled by the Russians and surrender/get wiped out in March?5%

Will Ukraine control any territory near Azov sea by end of March 2023?6%