Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut in March?
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Mason avatar

The battle rages on, with no end in sight
As Ukraine's troops decide to stay and fight
Their hold on Bakhmut may be strong and bold
But in March, will they stay or fold?

alangrow avatar
Alan Growbought Ṁ20 of YES

To the NOs: what exactly do you think is going to happen in Bakhmut? The changing control-of-terrain maps, not to mention other markets, suggest Russian control of the entire city soon. This is either a very optimistic bet that Ukraine holds Bakhmut, or a very pessimistic bet that encirclement is more likely than withdrawal.


Jelle avatar
Jelleis predicting NO at 45%

@alangrow The Russian advance has stalled for days now.

alangrow avatar
Alan Growbought Ṁ100 of YES

@Jelle Hopium. Here's a timelapse of ISW's control-of-terrain maps for the last couple weeks: https://imgur.com/a/4vzHlGl

Russian progress is clear from the timelapse. Manifold doesn't animate inline gifs, so here are the 4 frames as still images. Suggest looking at timelapse though for a better sense of how this unfolding.

alangrow avatar
Alan Growis predicting YES at 37%

@alangrow Let's see if I can get these in chrono order for you...

Jelle avatar
Jelleis predicting NO at 41%

@alangrow and Russia's advance is still stalled...

Everything you're sending is old news.

alangrow avatar
Alan Growis predicting YES at 32%

Not sure how continued advances on 03/09 qualified as "stalled" and "old news" two days later but okay! Here's an updated ISW timelapse showing more incremental advances on 03/11 and 03/14.


Jelle avatar
Jellebought Ṁ195 of NO

@alangrow Russia is still slowly progressing and Ukraine is still holding on, as expected. Ukraine has doubled down on Bakhmut, I doubt they're going anywhere.

NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHardbought Ṁ85 of YES

How does this resolve if they can't pull out because they get fully encircled and have to surrender?

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting YES at 70%

@NamesAreHard That wouldn't meet the criteria of resolving this market as a Yes.

PS avatar

Is this the same or different?

johnleoks avatar

@PS Similar but not completely the same. It could be possible for the Russians to "have control" over Bakhmut while the Ukrainian army is still there.