Resolution criteria

The manga will resolve YES if One Piece concludes by December 31, 2030. Resolution will be determined by an official announcement from creator Eiichiro Oda or Shueisha (the publisher) confirming the final chapter's release date. The market resolves NO if the series is still ongoing after December 31, 2030.

Background

Oda stated in 2022 that he would try to end One Piece in 3 years, which would have been 2025. However, Oda had previously stated he wanted to end One Piece by 2025, but this claim proved to be shockingly off-mark. Even though Oda is ready to end One Piece, it won't end anytime before 2030, and that's at the bare minimum. One Piece recently marked the end to the first arc of the Final Saga, Egghead, and now Oda has already made good progress in the second arc of this saga, Elbaf. As of 2025, the annual chapter output has slowed from 45–50 chapters to about 30–35 chapters per year due to Oda's planned breaks and health management.

Considerations

Shueisha and other stakeholders in One Piece will most definitely try their best to prolong One Piece as much as possible, with Jump's Editor-in-Chief in 2019 stating he didn't want One Piece to end and last forever, just like Dragon Ball and Naruto. If two or three islands are left, along with their significant events, it's more likely that One Piece will end after 2030.