Will Nikki Haley reach these thresholds in the South Carolina Republican primary election?
94
1.4k
3.9k
resolved Feb 26
Resolved
NO
≥ 40%
Resolved
NO
≥ 50%
Resolved
YES
≥ 30%
Resolved
YES
≥ 20%
Resolved
YES
≥ 10%
Resolved
YES
≥ 1%
Resolved
YES
> 0%

This is a question about the final vote count; this is not a question about incomplete results on election night.

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Haley has held at 39.5% while most of the remaining votes have been tabulated. I feel comfortable resolving the 40% market to NO.

≥ 30%

The "30%" one can be resolved as YES as well. Given that she's got 38.9% of the part of the vote that's been counted so far (81-or-82%) — even if EVERY remaining uncounted vote is for Trump, Haley would still have over 31%+ of the vote.

@PaintspotInfez I’m leaving a bit of a buffer since the 82% is an estimate. It’s extremely unlikely, but I’m going to wait a bit longer before resolving per mathematical impossibility.

@PaintspotInfez Based on the NYT estimate, the lowest Trump can get is 50.4%, so both the 50% and 30% answers are in the same kind of holding pattern now.

Is there any market for the number of delegates?

@robm Not that I’m aware of.

≥ 20%

This one can resolve as YES now. Like, statistically, since 52% of the votes have been tallied (and she's got over 39.5% of that) — even if EVERY remaining vote was for Trump, Haley would still have over 20%.

sold Ṁ9 ≥ 40% YES

UPDATE: Given that she's got 38.7% of the part of the vote that's been counted so far (65%), even if EVERY remaining uncounted vote is for Trump, Haley would still have over 25%+ of the vote.

So, @jks the "20%" question can be resolved as YES.

@PaintspotInfez I did that with the first three, but I just got home. I’ll verify and resolve it in a moment.

reposted

This is today! Check out the dashboard, I've got this question at the top because I think it's a good way to present where there is uncertainty in tonight's results. When you're in a primary and you're losing, it's all about whether you can outperform expectations/polling and claim you have momentum.

Michigan primary:

bought Ṁ10 of ≥ 40% NO

To be clear, if she drops out of the race, it'll still resolve based on the vote count, right?

@jack That is correct.

bought Ṁ20 of ≥ 1% NO

Ok, and what does >= 0% mean? How could that ever resolve NO?

@jack Ayyy, that should be a “>”. Thank you for asking.

bought Ṁ100 of > 0% YES

Ok thanks!