Resolves YES if the first BLS Employment Situation release covering October 2026 reports a negative seasonally adjusted change in total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment from August to September 2026.
Use September minus August employment in the seasonally adjusted Total nonfarm row of Table B-1 in that release. A result below zero resolves YES; zero or higher resolves NO. If the narrative and table disagree, Table B-1 controls.
This concerns September’s first monthly revision, not October’s new payroll estimate. Use the release as initially published; subsequent corrections, monthly revisions, and annual benchmark revisions do not count.
The report is currently scheduled for November 6, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Trading closes five minutes beforehand. If publication is delayed, wait for that October-reference-month report. If BLS has not published both required monthly estimates in that report by November 30, 2026 at 23:59:59 UTC, resolve N/A.
Background: September initially showed +29,000 jobs. A downward revision exceeding 29,000 would produce YES.
Sources: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm and https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
1,000