will @RanaG get her US visa approved before her travel date on May 30?
resolved May 24

information: Rana's ESTA (US visa waiver thing) was declined because she has been in Iraq in the last few years. So she has applied for an expedited appointment.

Resolves YES if Rana gets her passport with visa stamp back before 30 May

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Did you have prior experience? @houstonEuler

How did you get it right from the start? My prior was less than 10% but my data was exclusively taken from British bureaucracy, with a lot of data points taken from NHS.

@RanaG Yeah, multiple past experiences + you working for McKinsey made me pretty confident.

@houstonEuler interesting. It did seem quite straightforward the moment I told the intake officer who I worked for

@traders resolves to yes

@RanaG grats

@traders embassy have finished processing visa. Passport will be collected by courier this evening. Potentially available for collection tomorrow morning. If not then we have a long weekend holiday until Tuesday.

@traders Visa is approved. Processing time + courier is 7 days. There is a UK holiday on 27 May.

@traders my appointment was expedited to 21 May. But the question remains if this is going to be enough to return my passport

sold Ṁ13 NO

GPT-4.5 attempts analysis

To estimate the probability of Rana getting her US visa approved before her travel date of May 30, let's break down the factors and assign some probabilities based on typical scenarios and the urgency of the situation.

1. Expedited Appointment Granted: The success of getting an expedited appointment depends on the urgency and the reasoning provided. Given that she has a strong reason (previous ESTA declined due to travel history) and assuming she presented her case well, let's estimate:

- Probability of getting an expedited appointment: 75% (0.75)

2. Preparation and Documentation: Assuming Rana has all her documents in order and has prepared well for the interview:

- Probability of having complete and correct documentation: 90% (0.90)

3. Interview Performance: If she gets the interview, the outcome will heavily depend on how well she explains her situation and demonstrates her ties to her home country. Assuming she is well-prepared:

- Probability of a successful interview: 85% (0.85)

4. Processing and Administrative Factors: Even if the interview goes well, there's still the processing time which can be variable. Given the expedited process, let’s estimate:

- Probability of processing completion in time: 80% (0.80)

To calculate the overall probability, we multiply these probabilities:

\[ P(\text{Visa Approved on Time}) = P(\text{Expedited}) \times P(\text{Docs}) \times P(\text{Interview}) \times P(\text{Processing}) \]

\[ P(\text{Visa Approved on Time}) = 0.75 \times 0.90 \times 0.85 \times 0.80 \]

\[ P(\text{Visa Approved on Time}) = 0.459 \]

So, the overall probability of Rana getting her visa approved before her travel date, based on these factors, is approximately 46%. This reflects the tight timeline and the various hurdles she has to clear, but it still shows a significant chance of success if everything goes smoothly.

@jim appointment is 10% I'd say

@RanaG yes it just makes up numbers

@RanaG i am maybe more optimistic but not 75%

@jim GPT-4.5 wins this round I think. Hopefully they release it publicly at some point.

Resolves yes if I get my passport with visa stamp back before 30 May

but unlikely I think. The whole non-esta process is purposefully painful by design