Will Rana succeed in reaching BMI 19 by end of November?
resolved Jun 5

Rana has gained weight due to medical treatment and wants to restore her past weight. She says that this will require discipline. Past attempts have failed. She is following a new method this time, with a strict measurement feedback loop. And 5% milestones of achieving targets.

Recreational food is permabanned.

Resolves YES on public scale measurement demonstrating success (e.g. on a Discord call or something).

Get αΉ€600 play money
Sort by:

N/A-ing as requested, per Manifold policy on personal markets

@traders the first milestone is on 10 June. The current distance from that milestone is 5.3kg


@Schneefackel wrong bet

@RanaG Why?

@Schneefackel you'd be taking part of my profit when I win

@RanaG So you value this tiny bit of play money over my emotional support? That's… very cold from you. πŸŒ¨οΈβ„οΈ

@Schneefackel lol. The idea was that I moved the market to 99% probability which is not efficient but it's an incentive for me to succeed

bought αΉ€500 YES from 66% to 69%
bought αΉ€500 YES

@RanaG So you're saying that I can bet YES, show support for your personal goals, but actually increase the chance for chubby Rana? ❀️

bought αΉ€50 YES

I remember Rana previously talking about struggling with process management, and a 6-month weight loss plan sure seems like quite a process to me. πŸ€“ She also said she's getting better at it though, so I'm cautiously optimistic.