sell order at 90%. interested parties may arb with https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-joe-biden-resign-in-his-first as far as I can tell

@Bayesian Ah, there's a third option, which is that he dies before January 20.

And a fourth option is the 25th amendment is invoked - I think that doesn't count as resigning.

So these two markets should add to less than 100%.

oh good point

wait so these are even more arbable than previously thought?

@Bayesian Until someone fixes it 😉

@TimothyJohnson5c16 By buying my NO shares!

It's going to be so funny when Biden resigns the day after the election and hails the greatest achievement of his administration: American's first black woman president.

The other reason why Biden will resign is that it's better if Harris pardons the Biden crime family than if Biden does it himself, which brings up more constitutional issues.

Care to make a side bet? Biden won’t receive a pardon from Harris.

I’ll bet as much as you like.

I’m only betting “no” here as an arb against my position on https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-joe-biden-resign-in-his-first?r=RGF2aWRGV2F0c29u

Be careful you don't overpay in fees

Oh oh, limit orders only, but thank you

Remember when we were told that “very smart traders” were betting that Biden would not finish his term? Here is the user to whom that phrase referred:

Correct me if I'm wrong but does the difference between these too markets (currently 83% vs 22%) imply that traders think there is a 5% chance President Biden drops dead or gets pushed out by his cabinet before the end of the term? Seem a bit high to me

(not that I don't enjoy doing a bit of arbitration)

No, the markets are just inconsistent, and can be arbed.
Currently is says there's a 22% chance he resigns, but only an 100-83 = 17% chance he doesn't finish the term. But if he resigns, he obviously doesn't finish the term.

If this market were at 78%, and the resign market were at 17%, that would be a 5% that he dies or gets removed without resigning.

You're right, I was reading the other way around

that linked market is too high bc there's one guy that has a lot of mana and is buying at 21%. probably a good price to be buying NO at.

Not sure these can technically be arbed now (at 84% / 20%), the fees make you lose more than you gain.

https://manifold.markets/Lagomorph/will-joe-biden-die-before-the-concl

Polymarket now at 82%.

Biden just said that he has 100 days left. That says he will hand over if Harris wins and maybe if she doesn't. Does he want his VP to be the first black female president? Yes of course.

Where did Biden say that he has 100 days left? I think that's false.

I can only find it in a single article from Times of India and the embedded tweet

Even if he did say it, what's more likely:

• That the President of the US first announced his plan to step down early by casually mentioning a timeframe in an unrelated context and expecting people to do the math?

• Or that he wasn't speaking/thinking very precisely about timeframes?

Sure but it raises the probability by a small amount and at 83% you are getting a good price on health alone I think.

No it does not

I don't think it does