What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series?
240
31kṀ61k
2026
4%
Gandalf is black
64%
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
7%
There will be seven CGI dwarves
11%
Keir Starmer is in it
15%
Awkwafina is cast in the show
8%
Zendaya is cast in the show
43%
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
11%
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
3%
Hagrid is black
26%
Dobby makes an appearance
15%
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
11%
Voldemort is a woman
87%
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
98%
Snape is black
72%
It's woke
13%
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
31%
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
42%
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
29%
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
68%
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

Feel free to add your own options ❤

Or comment them and I'll add them

https://www.teenvogue.com/story/harry-potter-tv-reboot-hbo-max-everything-you-need-to-know

  • Update 2025-07-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about how options referring to characters or events not in Season 1 will be handled, the creator has stated the market will be resolved to N/A.

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RESOLUTION CRITERIA Resolves YES if Gandalf makes a crossover appearance and he's black, Resolves NO if he makes an appearance and isn't black. Also resolves YES if we get a crossover episode featuring a Gandalf the Black to go along with Gandalf the Grey and Gandalf the White, even if he is not actually Black. Resolves N/A if no appearance by end of first season

@evan What the characters are shown watching a Rankin/Bass adaptation of LOTR/Hobbit, in which Gandalf is depicted as white? (Peter Jackson's adaptations would be anachronistic)

@GG Would resolve NO

@evan what if there is a character like a house elf or something named gandalf and he is black in coloration?

@BlackCrusade that seems like a lock for YES

@bens @evan what if there's a character called Gendolf or some other permutation which is pronounced similarly?

@evan I'm going to focus on manifesting this.

@evan in the books or the movies?

@noaht2 this is the case in The Cursed Child but not in the films

I wish we had a market on whether any of the actors will come out as trans in the next 25 years.

@BrunoParga you could make one?

@dgga tomorrow

@dgga it is tomorrow where I live (j/k, but almost)

I've created three options here: https://manifold.markets/TylerMurphy/what-will-be-true-of-the-new-harry-CqQO9zp2nq#q50LnOUQl0pd

@evan How do we even quantify that? Like, what needs to happen for "yes" to win this?

@MikeFrenkel I'll watch it, if it seems woke resolves YES. Otherwise NO

In the book it's "Harry - you're a wizard"

The book makes it seem like he's not wearing a head covering and he doesn't meld with Voldy until later on

Omg please na @jim I didn't know it was 1000

@strutheo mandrake root

bought Ṁ10 YES

If we don't get to Hogwarts on the first episode how does the last 10minute question resolve?

@RicardoVieira Presumably would resolve NO

@Bandors Then it's True only i it happens in the last 10 minutes of episode 1, not before nor after

I'm probably not gonna bet because the resolution condition(s) are not clearly (or at all) defined, and I hate even taking part in this discussion (Idgaf about the race of anyone, only about the integrity of these markets), but looking at the few pictures Google gives me of Stanton, she is obviously not white. I don't know if we have a different definition for 'white' in Europe or something, but whatever ethnicity she is, it's definitely not white lol. 71% on this option is ridiculous.

bought Ṁ150 NO

@dgga yolo

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