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MANIFOLD
What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series?
284
Ṁ32kṀ110k
Dec 31
37%
Season is nominated for Outstanding Drama Series at the Emmys
1%
Set in the year 2077
68%
A wand is visibly placed into, or drawn from, a character's pocket/robes more times than a wand is set down on a table or desk
39%
The cumulative screen time of Neville Longbottom's toad, Trevor, is strictly greater than the cumulative screen time of Argus Filch's cat, Mrs. Norris
57%
The total number of times the word 'Harry' is spoken across the season is strictly greater than 3.5 times the number of times the word 'Potter' is spoken
55%
More Great Horned Owls appear than Barn Owls
55%
Harry Potter is on-screen for at least 4 hours total
45%
A character who is named Dave or David appears in the show
68%
A slur is uttered by any character
15%
actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting
4%
Adolf Hitler is mentioned
24%
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
5%
set in the 2020s
4%
set in 2025
2%
Gandalf is black
39%
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
6%
There will be seven CGI dwarves
5%
Keir Starmer is in it
8%
Awkwafina is cast in the show
1%
Zendaya is cast in the show

Feel free to add your own options ❤

Or comment them and I'll add them

https://www.teenvogue.com/story/harry-potter-tv-reboot-hbo-max-everything-you-need-to-know

  • Update 2025-07-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about how options referring to characters or events not in Season 1 will be handled, the creator has stated the market will be resolved to N/A.

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Can someone add "actor in the show receives an Emmy nomination for acting" and "season is nominated for Outstanding Drama Series at the Emmys?" Edit: I just went ahead and added the second request.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Is mudblood a slur?

@TonyGao @BlackCrusade Seconding this

@BlackCrusade thoughts?

@TonyGao is it considered a slur in the Harry Potter universe? I'd say anything that can be reasonably taken as a slur would constitute a YES on this.

@jim an in-universe slur is not a slur outside of the universe. This market is not in-universe. Thus an exclusively in-universe slur definitely should not resolve an option option YES, unless the option specifically states so. For multiple reasons it's not realistic for traders to expect the option to mean in-universe.

@dgga that's contrary to what I had said.

@itsTomekK does this require full penetration to be shown on screen?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@BlackCrusade Almost certainly not, question creator can clarify but I don't see how a kiss on the lips wouldn't suffice

@Kraalnaxx Kiss would definitely suffice. And any other strong intimacy / suggestion that more is happening besides the screen.

How about holding hands? ;)

Can someone add "actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting?"

bought Ṁ20 NO

@BlackCrusade This smells like a gotcha, but I'll bite. Presume this resolves NO by default

@itsTomekK I recognize Harry's birthday, but what's symbolic about December 21?

@ShankarSivarajan hm maybe not with HP lore, but it's palindrome mayan date before christmas bingewatch & buy dobby socks season

@Ziddletwix du think i should resolve now or wait until it's confirmed beyond doubt (i.e. he appears in the trailer or something)

@jim I feel like wait, perhaps, bc often these things fall through

RESOLUTION CRITERIA Resolves YES if Gandalf makes a crossover appearance and he's black, Resolves NO if he makes an appearance and isn't black. Also resolves YES if we get a crossover episode featuring a Gandalf the Black to go along with Gandalf the Grey and Gandalf the White, even if he is not actually Black. Resolves N/A if no appearance by end of first season

@evan What the characters are shown watching a Rankin/Bass adaptation of LOTR/Hobbit, in which Gandalf is depicted as white? (Peter Jackson's adaptations would be anachronistic)

@GG Would resolve NO

@evan what if there is a character like a house elf or something named gandalf and he is black in coloration?

@BlackCrusade that seems like a lock for YES

@bens @evan what if there's a character called Gendolf or some other permutation which is pronounced similarly?

@evan I'm going to focus on manifesting this.

@evan in the books or the movies?