Overall, Polymarket’s estimate of the race being pretty damned close to 50/50 seems reasonable. If I had to guess what the model will say in a week or two once we get enough post-debate polling, that’s the range I’d pick.

Nate Silver, from https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-guide-to-post-debate-poll-watching

Also from that blog post, Silver says that the model will fully take into account post-debate polling about a week after the debate, or around September 18.

Is the chart you posted under a paywall? If so, can someone post the updated chart currently post-debate?

@JaredAsh Harris is at 38.1% after today's update. Note that there hasn't been any post-debate polling yet.

When specifically will we snapshot the Nate Silver model to resolve based on that snapshot? Are we talking the exact moment the market closes is the moment that someone needs to snapshot the model and the market resolves based on that?

@Tripping yeah it's just whatever the chart shows at market close. The chart is only updated about once a day

2000 limit order at 50% for no, come and take it if you're confident that Kamala will overtake Trump

Isn’t this missing an option for “she’ll be worse”?

@jbca Worse than what?

Worse than 38.3%? Then bet No on "Harris will be at greater than 38.3% (her current prob)"

Worse than Trump? Then bet No on "Harris will be ahead of Trump"

@agabara I’m an idiot I misread what kind of market this was. Makes sense!

She needs to gain about 2 points in the polls (minus whatever part of the convention bounce adjustment is washed out) to be favored again.

Why is this so close? 😫

Day three since the snapshot and Nate still doubling down

Related:

/SimonGrayson/when-will-harris-overtake-trump-in

Still early, but looking at the new siena poll how about this theory: Harris had a honeymoon phase which was prolonged by the convention. Because there was no adjustment for the honeymoon phase, the model overestimated her chances pre-convention but corrected them once the convention bounce adjustment was applied. Her odds now are somewhat fair, and we will see a random walk going forward

The convention adjustment is so strong that it wearing off should actually still raise her odds more than polls like today's drop them. Biden got no convention bounce in 2020 and nate's model dropped him from 72 to 67 and then he rebounded to 75, all with basically flat polling.

That said, this NYT poll is obviously bearish.

Depends how much of an outlier this new poll was. The adjustment was -1 or -2 points, the NYT/siena poll is -4 points

I need to get some more mana to buy no

I don't think I would even buy 86% that Kamala will be >38.3 on Polymarket in 2 weeks. But limit order up if anyone disagrees

@dominic I disagree with Kamala not bouncing back in Silver's model bc his expected convention bounce was like 3 points, which seems way too high

@jBosc I agree the bounce is too high. But she could have a bad debate or something and end up below 38.3. 2 weeks is a long time with only 2 months to the election.