Nate Silver's model to favour Harris 2 weeks from now?
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1kṀ250kresolved Sep 21
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Resolved
YESHarris will be ahead of Trump
Resolved
YESHarris will be at greater than 38.3% (her current prob)
Resolves according to the chart here:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Nate Silver's model currently has an adjustment against Harris to compensate for a supposed "DNC bump". This adjustment will fade away over the next couple weeks. Will Harris then take the lead?
And will she improve compared to where she is now?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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