Recently Roko Mijic took a controversial position on the role of women in the modern world economy: https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1770045723188383975
I recommend reading the whole tweet!
He made the claim that it is the case that "the net total productivity contribution of women to GDP is negative, and by a very large amount."
"i.e. we could be richer by just giving all women a guaranteed lifetime UBI to party/date/go on holiday/do art/hobby science/whatever they like for their entire lives"
"Well, you can almost prove it mathematically; as the economy becomes more complex, contributions to GDP are more and more dominated by the right tail, which is mainly male due to men because men have a higher variance. What do women do in the workplace? They get men fired/demoted/overlooked for promotion because it's not "fair" that men take more of the top slots. Not to mention the negative contribution to politics (see: 1 in 7 men support wokeness, 3 in 7 women do) So as a pure mathematical fact there must be some stage of right-tail returns where the above is true. I just happen to think we've already passed it."
This poll is about whether we haven't really passed the point Roko describes.
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Even if most of what Roco claims were true, women could still get men fired and vote for woke stuff if they didn't work. The real question is "would GDP be higher if all women disappeared?".
Would like to see someone go through the probability logic for this because it seems non-sensical to me. But in regards to the poll directly, this seems to be a conditional question, i.e. I have to buy Roko’s premise, before I can say whether “we have passed the point Roko describes.” For the record I don’t.
@Awex if the point Roko describes doesn't exist then we have not passed it (because you can't pass something that doesn't exist). So if you think it doesn't exist you can vote yes
@jim Ok. Fair enough. But that means that amongst people who will vote with me are some who believe that the point exists but also believe that we haven’t gone past it yet. So then what would any result here really show? It’s like asking “Given that Coke is better than Pepsi, is Coke too expensive?” And then saying if you don’t buy my premise vote “No”.
@Awex It's like asking "Is paying 2€ for a coke better than 1.5€ for a pepsi" some NO voters might think coke is better but not that much better, other NO voters might think pepsi is actually better.
@justifieduseofFallibilism It’s like saying “is paying $2 for a Coke better than $1.6 for a pepsi, and maybe the pepsi doesnt exist”…
@justifieduseofFallibilism Yeah but then they make that clarifying statement at the end “This poll is about whether we haven't really passed the point Roko describes.” So which is it…