Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates?
20
1kṀ36062100
71%
Raise by >5%
6%
Raise by [2.5, 5)%
3%
Raise by [0.5, 2.5)%
1.5%
Neutral (-0.5% to 0.5%)
6%
Lower by [0.5, 2.5)%
5%
Lower by [2.5, 5)%
7%
Lower by >5%
Measured with the 10-yr real interest rate as calculated by the St-Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y
Baseline: Average of the 10-yr real interest rate. I will average the rate over the year preceding the release of Strong AI. I will then average the same rate, starting one year after the release of said strong AI.
This resolves at T + 2 yr after the release of strong AI. Will extend indefinitely.
A release is defined as SAI being deployed for purposes other than research.
I'm adding this criterion to account for scenarios where OpenAI/MSFT decides to run agents in-house and capture the profit for themselves without releasing access to the public, for example.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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