Will Isaac King correctly resolve the 'Will Zorn correctly resolve the "Will Isaac King correctly resolve the Whales vs.
11
99
แน€170
resolved May 10
Resolved
YES

Minnows market?" market?' market?

Resolves YES if Isaac runs the poll as described at https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-zorn-correctly-resolve-the-wil and abides by the results, otherwise NO.

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He ran the poll and resolved the market in accordance with its results. Gonna wait a day or two before resolving this YES in case someone has an argument for why I shouldn't, but looks like YES to me.

predicted YES

@jfjurchen I checked the poll a little later than the 48 hours I said I would, which could be an argument for NO.

@IsaacKing Well, it was open for >48 hours and wasn't at all close - I don't think a reasonable person would interpret the description to mean that you'd check exactly 48:00.000 later.

bought แน€1,000 of YES

I can hear @Catnee chastising me already... "Mira do you really think that in fewer than 1 in 1000 timelines Isaac would not get sick or hit by a bus or decide to troll you one last time by misresolving a market for the fun of it. To put tens of thousands of mana at risk just to scrape an extra 30 is so irresponsible."

predicted NO

I initially misread the description on https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-zorn-correctly-resolve-the-wil as "I will hold an open poll within 48 hours after the 'Will Isaac King correctly resolve the Whales vs. Minnows market?" market resolves.'" It looks like the description doesn't actually specifically say when the poll will be run, so it's not clear at what point I should resolve this "NO" if the poll is never created. Tentatively I'm thinking:

  • Extend the close date on this market to the end of May

  • If the poll still hasn't been posted by the time this market closes, resolve this market NO (even if the poll is posted between when the market closes and when I get around to resolving)

Thoughts? cc @IsaacKing

predicted YES

@jfjurchen Thanks for the reminder, just made the poll.

bought แน€1 of YES

"Will J. F. Jurchen correctly resolve [...]"