Will Tesla (TSLA) have a market cap of under $400B in 2024
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190
2025
28%
chance

Yes if it drops below $400B at any time in 2024.

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predicts NO

Just checking: If market cap goes up to $1.4tn then falls to $699bn then starts rising again, Does this resolve yes because 699bn < 1.4tn/2 or does it resolve no because 699bn is not as low as $401.23bn?

If the latter, why not just word it as: "Will Tesla market cap fall under $400bn?" Description could note that at market creation Tesla market cap is $802.46bn so it would be a halving of the market cap.at claim creation.

@ChristopherRandles good point, I changed it for clarity