This market resolves to YES if one of the following conditions is met before 2022-04-01 00:00 UTC:
- The Russian team is disallowed by FIFA from playing in their planned qualifying match against Poland on the 24th of March.
- The Russian team is disallowed by FIFA from playing a subsequent qualifier after either winning the first qualifier or the first qualifier being forfeit by the other team.
- FIFA makes a statement to the effect that Russia will not be allowed to compete in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, for reasons other than losing in the qualifiers.
And resolves to NO otherwise.
If a qualifier is not played due to the other team refusing to play, and this is taken as a forfeit to Russia, this DOES NOT count as them being disallowed by FIFA from playing in that qualifier. It DOES count if and only if subsequent to such refusal and before the start of April, FIFA states it will not allow Russia to proceed to subsequent qualifiers or the World Cup.
If a qualifier is delayed, this does NOT count as the Russian team being disallowed by FIFA from playing in that qualifier. If the qualifier is delayed past the start of April, this market still resolves at the start of April, and will resolve as NO unless one of the above conditions is met.
If a qualifier is played and the Russian team fails to proceed to subsequent qualifiers or the World Cup as a result of their game performance, this market resolves to NO. Statements that Russia would have not been allowed to play anyway after they are out of the competition anyway do not affect the resolution of the market.
Actions by UEFA are considered to be actions by FIFA for this market due to it being a subsidiary.
Resolution and closing: This market may resolve early as soon as one of the conditions for YES resolution are met. Otherwise it resolves start of April. The market's closing date is before the planned date of the first qualifier. It may on a discretionary basis close earlier if it appears that resolution is likely to occur soon, e.g. if FIFA states they are making an announcement on the matter). This is intended to be a matter of up to 24 hours closure and ideally less. This is dependent on my availability and awareness of the news.
Own Trading: I may trade on the market myself. I have no reason to believe I have insider information on the topic.
Feb 27, 7:42pm: Requiring participation be under the name "Football Union of Russia" rather than "Russia" and barring the Russian flag and anthems is *really* close to meeting the third condition here. Ruling it does not, yet, in and of itself, because the name and label change would not stop them from being understood as Russia's team informally by everyone.
Close date updated to 2022-02-28 5:00 pm
Feb 28, 4:57pm: Closing due to pending FIFA announcement, reopening tomorrow if it's not resolved by then.
Feb 28, 6:13pm: Resolving YES per https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/60560567