Who will run in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? [OLD VERSION]
Who will run in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries? [OLD VERSION]
5
920Ṁ1622028
43%
Amy Klobuchar
14%
Gavin Newsom
10%
Pete Buttiegieg
9%
Kamala Harris
8%
Gretchen Whitmer
8%
3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
1.1%
Jon Ossoff
Resolves equally to every candidate who has formally announced a presidential campaign for the 2028 election by Super Tuesday of the 2028 primary season (March 7, 2028).
Is it a bit early to be making this market? Yeah, for sure. It's fun to see how accurate we can be five years out, though.
In the unlikely event that there are no Democratic presidential primaries in 2028, this resolves as N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.